英国research paper代写精选：“许可营销的实际应用”，这篇论文主要介绍了一种新型的营销方法——许可营销，也就是permission marketing。文章指出，许可营销指的是，企业在推广其产品或服务的时候，事先征得顾客的“许可”，并在得到潜在的顾客许可之后，通过E-mail的方式向顾客发送产品/服务信息，因此，许可营销也称为许可E-mail营销。本research paper代写由51due整理，供大家参考阅览。
Godin presents Permission Marketing as a solution to what he terms the 'Attention Crisis' marketing professionals face today. Although technology has created many new mediums that can be utilized to market products, it has also immensely increased the number of outlets vying for our attention. Compared to years ago when there were only a handful of networks and a small number of newspapers and periodicals, today we can select from 282 channels and more. The large number of choices imposed on a finite quantity of time means that consumers are willing to spend less and less time paying attention to marketing.
Technology has also allowed customers to steadily increased their standards to expect the highest quality product no matter what they purchase. This means that consumers no longer have to invest nearly as much time investigating what products will meet their needs because all are expected to.
Current methods of marketing, Godin shows, involve breaking through the clutter to try and gain the customer's attention for a short period of time. 'Interruption Marketing' breaks into your dinner in the form of a cold call or occupies the space right after a TV writer cleverly markets his own show and entices you to continue watching it with a cliffhanger. Commercials become ever more glamorous and expensive to produce because there are so many different products, solutions to problems, competing for the finite resource of time. The only problem is that the more consumers are marketed to, the less they pay attention to it on the whole.
Permission marketing takes into account the value that consumers place on their time in concentrating on reaching the customer with a message that is anticipated, personal, and relevant. Anticipated, because the customer has 'volunteered' to be marketed to and looks forward to your contact. The message should be personal, catering to the individual. In order not to waste the consumer's time it should be something they are interested in.
Once you have gained their permission, it is important to continue to cultivate that permission and relationship. As the customer grants you more information, it should be used to develop a message that is even more personal and relevant to their needs. This, in a sense, binds the customer to you because you are meeting their needs and presenting yourself as a path of least resistance towards fulfillment of their needs. The end goal, of course, being to turn these consumers in to long-term profitable customers.
In order to implement Permission Marketing, you must first interrupt the customer and convince him to volunteer to be marketed to. This is done with an incentive. The incentive can take many forms, but it must be obvious and clearly delivered. Once the consumer volunteers, you offer them a curriculum of value and information over time. During the process, the incentive must be reinforced to ensure that the consumer's attention is maintained. Throughout the process, the goal is to increase the level of permission and to leverage that into a valuable relationship for both parties.
Again, technology plays a part in that it has allowed Permission Marketing to be cost effective. Because we can now cheaply, efficiently, and effectively gather and sort information about consumers, we can craft a message that is more personalized and perceived as a greater value because it is relevant to the problems they are trying to solve.
In addition, because the World Wine Web presents a medium upon which the delivery of these messages is free, we can present these messages to consumers with increased frequency. This increases the success rate once again because we have used the permission that was granted to us to advance the level of information and value add we present to the customer.
In reading this book, it didn't speak to me on the level of the text of Levitt. It almost seems as what is being presented is a workaround for the attention crisis. Permission Marketing does effectively utilize technology to present a relevant and personal message, but in order to get to that point you must first interrupt the customer and get them to pay attention.
I did appreciate Godin's recognition of the value people place on their time. I use myself as an example in that every day I go trough life expecting that new products and solutions are being created to meet my needs, as well as knowing that major factors involved in almost all buying decisions I make are convenience and timesavings. I recently bought a refrigerator with an icemaker. Not only was the icemaker important to me because I would always have ice ready, but that I wouldn't have to fill ice trays anymore or use a filtering pitcher for water. I bought it from Nebraska Furniture Mart because I felt their prices were comparable, knew their products were of good quality, and more importantly would deliver and install the refrigerator complete with connecting the pipes. I was capable of making the connection myself, but certainly enjoyed spending the time watching TV while the workmen did the installation.
The Attention Crisis is most certainly a reality. I can say with complete honesty that I never watch a commercial that hasn't previously entertained me by accidentally gaining my attention. Even then, I watch for entertainment value, not paying much attention at all to what is being marketed. I have determined that I can flip through all the channels at my disposal and locate a better alternative to what I'm watching, if it exists, all in the time it take for a standard commercial block.
Godin presents, at its basest level, a customer focus theory similar to that of Levitt. He uses an incentive to get the customer to agree to give you their attention so you can demonstrate to them how you have focused your efforts to meet their particular needs. The permission they give you allows you to collect more and more information about them to be used in the creation and marketing of products.
The only real problem that I have with Godin is that he prophetically warns of the death of mass media and interruption marketing, but points to it as the entry point to permission marketing.
I have noticed, even at Ameritrade, that we are beginning to focus more of our promotion and marketing efforts towards affinity and incentive programs. As a manager in Product Development, our mantra is to continually create products that add value to the customer and assist in capturing a larger share of wallet.
I've been working on a project for about the last 2 months involving our relationship with NetBank. All Ameritrade applicants that agree to open, and eventually fund a NetBank Checking account with $40, receive a $50 bonus (read incentive). In return for access to our applicants, NetBank is offering brokerage services to all of their accountholders through our subsidiary AmeriVest. In addition, NetBank will also sweep idle cash balances of all AmeriVest Accounts into interest bearing money market accounts. I wasn't a real fan of this deal because we give NetBank access to a customer base nearly ten times the size of their own. My confidence in our marketing team was restored when I spoke with some of them and found that the reason we agreed to work with them is that of their accountholders, more than 60% invest online and have investment balances over $50,000. By offering the added value and convenience of low commissions as well as the investment of idle cash, we hope to capitalize on the permission they have granted and turn them into long term customers.
英国research paper代写精选：“商品与消费者之间的针对性关联”，这篇论文主要介绍了商品与消费者之间的针对性联系。文章以汽车和顾客特征搭配的案例为例，分析了个性化营销的概念，并指出了建立消费者个人数据库和信息档案的重要性，以及其对于企业了解市场动向和顾客需求的必要性。本research paper代写由51due整理，供大家参考阅览。
The five cars that were chosen included the following: A Ford pickup truck, a Buick sedan, a Toyota minivan, a Porsche 9-11 Turbo, and a Mercedes BenzClass. The individuals' personalities varied by gender, age, manner of dress, and other distinctiveness. They consisted of a twenty-one year old, white female; a thirty-four year old black male; and a fifty-two year old Hispanic male. These three individuals, ranging from various demographics were asked to match each of the five people in the personality groups with one of the five cars that described his/her personality most accurately. After analyzing the results of the individuals' answers, many strong consistencies were present in their responses.
All three respondents perceive the Mercedes BenzClass as being an extra ordinary car and the second most expensive out of the whole group. The price range of this vehicle is estimated to be around $32,000- $100,000. They view the Mercedes Benz as a sophisticated car that would be best suited for individuals of age thirty and up who have successful careers. These respondents also associate people who look wealthy and classy with the Mercedes. They match the Asian woman with this car because she looks very trendy and sophisticated. One respondent mentions that she had always pictured Asian women driving luxury cars and never thought to wonder why, until now.
The next car that is analyzed is the Toyota minivan. This van is perceived as being a typical family vehicle. The price of the Toyota minivan ranges from $25,000- $38,000. Interestingly, the respondents combine family mom's wit When Carlos, the 52year old Hispanic male, is presented the photo of the 'soccer mom' he immediately matches her with the minivan. He states, 'Everyone knows that soccer moms drive minivans since they have children and carpools to tend to'. He also explains that minivans are considered safe cars which would be a priority for a mother. Also, this woman is dressed like a typical mom.
The Porsche 911 Turbo is perceived as being both a fun and serious car. All three of the respondents associate members of the adventurous group with this unique car. The price of this car ranges from $95,000- $120,000. According to the respondents, the Porsche 911 Turbo may be associated with professionals or careeroriented people who also love to go out and enjoy the night life. It is viewed as being a classy yet fun and outgoing car. The thirtyfour year old black male states that the male model would more likely drive the Porsche because he looks like he is 'about business and fun at the same time.' Carlos also matches the well dressed Caucasian male with the Porsche because he fits 'the type'. More specifically, he explains that the male figure is dressed in expensive clothing and that most individuals who are well dressed and wealthy tend to purchase these types of luxury cars. Meghan, the twentyone year old white female, pairs the 'fairly young European male' with the Porsche as well stating that since he is dressed in high fashion and a three piece designer suit he has enough money to afford it.
The next car that is selected is the Buick, an affordable and reliable car, a car that would most likely be driven by a senior citizen or a retired elderly person. The price range of this car is $26,000 - $35,000. Carlos places the el;how she is dressed. The respondent is identify that she is a calm individual who wants to feel safe and protected. James, the thirtyfour year old black male, believes that neither of the other figures presented could be associated with a Buick. Meghan adds the fact that it's a recognized stereotype that a Buick is known for its older models and popularity within the age group of sixty to sixty-five.
Finally, the Ford pickup truck was identified with the 'cowboy'. The price of this truck ranges from $27,000- $36,000. It is viewed as a car that is driven by those who are in the construction business or work in farming within rural areas. In fact, Meghan matches the 'cowboy' with the truck for the sole reason that he looks like a cowboy from Midwest. She associates a cowboy with an individual works on a ranch or a rodeo. Carlos adds that most cowboys and southerners prefer pick-up trucks because it is convenient for them to store their farming gear and various tools. James describes the cowboy as a rugged, western, middle-aged man. He also identifies the cowboy with the pickup truck for similar reasons.
After evaluating our information, we came to a conclusion that there were many consistencies amongst the responses. These consistencies help marketers learn about the product or service which they are advertising. All of our responses were constant. Every one of our interviewees placed the picture of the elderly woman with the Buick because the car is old fashioned and cheap. They associated elderly people with older model cars. The soccer mom was placed with the mini van because the mini van is a big, durable and reliable car which the mother is able to use for her groceries and carpools. It has plenty of room for the kids, dog, food and anything else that she may want to place in there. The cowboy was associated with the pick up truck because it's rugged and provides ample space for their belongings. Cowboys work on farms or ranches where owning a pick up truck is very convenient. Also, cowboys are from the south where there is more off road terrain.
A pickup truck provides the cowboy with space for his equipment, building material and more towing capacity. The Porsche and the young attractive male were placed together by all of our interviewees because of their extremely similar characteristics. Both the car and the man are attractive, sleek, exotic and striking. The CClass Mercedes Benz and the Asian woman were constantly associated with each other. The Mercedes Benz represents class. Many respondents associated wealth, status, careers, and fun with this vehicle as well as the girl. Sophisticated yet affordable, the CClass is a smart buy with great safety features and is a good combination with a young girl. All of this information can be extremely helpful for marketers because it can be linked to their promotional message. The interviewees placed members of different groups with these cars which can lead a marketer to focus more on the target market because it can be extremely expensive and time consuming to target several different segments.
An individual's personality is comprised of a combination of factors. These factors are specific attributes that characterize individual differences. Based on the belief that personality is the unique and distinctive attributes of a person that distinguish one from someone else, marketers believe that personalities ultimately result in the purchasing of specific products. Although no two individuals are exactly alike, many individuals may have similar personality traits; therefore, enabling marketers to separate consumers into segments.
Researchers believe that personality plays a significant role in the purchasing of certain products. By analyzing an individual's traits, marketers may determine whether a consumer would prefer and/or purchase a Mercedes Benz results provided validity to the Freudian Theory and Product Personality. The respondents of this particular study considered the individuals' appearance and possessions when connecting them to the assortment of vehicles.
英国research paper代写精选：“The development of African music”，这篇论文主要介绍了非洲在殖民时期出现的不同音乐类型以及各自的背景意义。文章指出，西非音乐是非洲人民在被欧洲人俘获并贩卖到美国成为奴隶之前所流行的音乐，而西非音乐在近几年的发展逐渐与社会现实联系了起来，这对非洲音乐的发展起到了非常大的促进作用。本research paper代写由51due整理，供大家参考阅览。
Music before the 20th century was very different when compared to the music of the 21st Century. There were distinctive occasions for each type of African music. West African music, the African Diaspora, and the music of the Colonies each had different musical instruments.
West African music was the music of the African people before the Europeans captured and sold them into slavery in the Americas. It was unique in the manner in which it was played as well as the reasons why it was played. West African music was documented around the 1600's when explorers wrote journals about what they had found while traveling.
Every West African village had its own professional musicians and singers who would perform for the community. Musicians were idolized in their villages. They normally sat with the king or chief because of their elevated status.
West African's made music for ceremonies surrounding agriculture, the crowning a new king or chief, and the reenactment of an important event that happened in the past. Special kinds of music were played during war ceremonies, hunting excursions, and other victory celebrations. Hunting songs, war songs, and boating songs were performances of men. Music performed by women was associated with children, young girls, and funerals. An example of a festival the West Africans celebrated was called the 'Annual Customs of Dahomey'. This was a festival worshiping the king of their capital. The West Africans also had music for litigation. They would come before a judge and sing or chant their argument.
Dance was also a big part in the music of West Africa. Dance was performed at ceremonies surrounding fertility, death, worship, adulthood, and other kind of certain concerns of the village.
Mainly the West Africans used percussive instruments. These drums came in all sizes ranging from ten to twelve inches to ten to twelve feet. Their drums were made out of hollowed out logs and gourds with a tight skin over the hollow. They also used idiophones to make music. They used a variety of bells, castanets, gongs, and sometimes they made small xylophones or small pianos. Aerophones weren't as prevalent as the percussions or idiophones. Some explorers made small flutes, horns and trumpets from elephant tusks. These instruments as well as the drums were used as 'talking instruments'. Chordophones were exclusive in Africa. West Africans didn't have many harps, fiddles, or musical bows. When they did they were made out of gourds and deerskins with holes. Fiddles were made from cow or horsehair for the strings and a narrow box made from alligator skin. Harp strings were made from the roots of a palm wine tree.
During performances on-lookers often participated by clapping their hands, tapping their feet, and dancing. They shouted encouraging words or words of disapproval to the performers indicating whether they enjoyed the performance or not. Call-and-response was big in West Africa. There would be a lead singer with a few others would act as a chorus to the one lead singer. That lead singer would sing a refrain while the others would almost sing back to the lead singer while singing their refrain. This call-and-response technique was representative of poetry as well as music.
During the seventeenth century Africans were brought to the mainland colonies. The earliest black settlers were indentured servants. Black people weren't the only indentured servants, white people and native Americans were also forced to work. African Diaspora was the music of the slaves and indentured servants. It connects to the Colonial Era
Around 1650 the first indentured servants were released after completing their respective amounts of servitude. Around that same time more and more Africans were being brought to the colonies as servants of some time but for most part, as servants of all time. During this period, black slavery was being established as law throughout the colonies. Although slavery was illegal in Massachusetts at that time, the slave traders had found ways to work around that law. They were technically slaves but they weren't directly called slaves.
Black slaves were being taken away from their families and were not permitted to bring material objects with them. In the Colonies, Africans weren't allowed to read, write, or learn anything except for what their master taught them. Some Africans learned to play a musical instrument by watching other white male musicians. Some became relatively famous. They had memories and their culture of music to keep their minds off of their enslavement. Their music in Africa was reflected in the new songs they sang as a release from the physical and mental cruelty of their new slavery.
During the Colonial Era slaves were allowed to attend church Sundays. This brought congregational singing into their lives. Black men and women had there own special pews and they would chant one or two lines at a time ending on a definite pitch and then the congregation would follow singing with the same line. This was called 'lining out' which still lingers on in black churches today. They learned to sing psalms by hearing them and then ach time they were sung, the tune would change a little. Singing schools eventually started appearing so people could receive 'correct singing'. Organs were brought into churches. During the 1730's a more upbeat singing pattern came to the churches called Hymnody. They were religious poems rather then psalms which became vastly popular through the colonies.
In the colonies, black musicians were entertainment for the colonists performing dance music. They would play for balls, country-dances, and sometimes in dance schools. Slaves played this music because they were consistent, experienced, and inexpensive. Many slaves were sold expensively because they had a musical talent. Slave musicians were mostly flute or violin players, which made them more valuable to the white colonists because dancers preferred these instruments.
Slaves, who weren't allowed to read or write, were able to play instruments so well because, according to Eileen Southern in the book The Music of Black Americans, 'It is thus logical to accept the notion that colonial slaves also might have taught themselves, especially since they were closer to the African tradition, and would have remembered the musical activities they pursed before coming to the New World.' (49) For slaves, the musical instruments favored were usually easy to learn, the instrument had easy access so they could practice at anytime, and their instrument had to be useful so that when they finally learned to play it, they could perform it well. Learning to play instruments and singing fell into to place when they had celebrations for example ''Lection Day'. This was when the black slaves would get together and vote for a 'governors'. Slaves were given Wednesday to Sunday to elect their 'governors'. During this celebration slave sang and danced to fiddles they played.
One piece that I listened to was Amazing Grace by Aretha Franklin. She has such a powerful voice that the song struck me as a prefect song to go along with the slavery era. The slaves kept their mind off the work they were doing by singing. Singing a song like Amazing Grace is a way to keep your emotions fixated on the song rather then the work. Listening to Aretha Franklin sing this song was such a joy because, although they play this song mainly at funerals, listening to her sing it just put a smile on my face.
The second piece I listened to was Fix Me Jesus sung by the University of Mississippi Concert Singers with conductor Jerry Jordon. What struck me in this song was I heard it in the Alvin Ailey Company video in class we watched. I liked this song because it reminded me of the songs the slaves sang during their one day off thinking what have they done wrong to deserve this treatment, please fix me Jesus. This really just hit me as startling and heartbreaking.
While West African music, the African Diaspora, and the music of the Colonies all had their unique music, these three time periods all blended in together creating music that would follow from generation to generation. African music soon blended into slavery music, which blended into spiritual and gospel, then soon blended into blues, rhythm and blues, and then maybe into hip hop as we know today. African American music to me is poetry of feeling.
英国research paper代写精选：“The way of interpersonal communication”，这篇论文主要讲述了人际沟通与交流的问题，文章对传统的沟通方式与新兴的沟通方式分别展开了分析和讨论，并指出人际沟通与交流的重要性，以及正确的沟通方式所能带来的提升作用。本research paper代写由51due整理，供大家参考阅览。
There are two traditional approaches to communication: transmission and ritual. The transmission approach views communication as 'conveying information over a distance for the purpose of control' whereas the ritual approach views it as 'a representation of shared beliefs' (Carey, n.d.). The traditional approaches are viewed as 'counter posed' views of communication as none of the approaches contests what the other has to offer. However their insights into the process of communication have given rise to a new cultural approach to communication where communication is defined as 'a symbolic process whereby reality is produced, maintained, repaired, and transformed' (Carey, 1988, pp. 23-24). This approach helps in understanding the existing communication processes in a disarmingly simplistic manner which makes it a wonderful experience. The objective of this essay is to analyze the cultural approach to communication with the help of a communication process, in this case, dance. This essay attempts to describe the process of cultural approach to communication with the help of dance as a communication process. Dance was chosen for the case study because it is a social and culturally significant process. Most people have an 'intuitive' understanding of dance, even from different cultures, but what they lack is the ability to explain it to others in terms of a communication process.
In his book Experimence and Nature, Dewey claimed that the 'of all things communication is the most wonderful' (1939, p. 385). However, the everyday activities like conversations, giving and receiving instruction, sharing of information, entertaining others and getting entertained which are collectively termed as communication (Carey, 1988, p. 23) are routine activities. They happen so often and are so redundant that they are almost trivial and stop receiving our attention. There is nothing wonderful about these activities unless there is 'excessive masochism' like a brilliant opera or a sensational news item. Such wonderfulness is rare which leads many communication scholars to term day-to-day communication as a 'common and mundane human experience'. However, Carey does not subscribe to this view as he believes that Dewey must have meant something deeper when he termed communication as the 'most wonderful thing'. According to Carey, communication appears mundane as people focus too much on trivial aspects that they forget the awesomeness in it. In his cultural approach to communication, Carey proposed to make communication appear problematic by inversing the relationship between realism and symbolic forms. Carey used the term 'symbolic process' which creates reality to explain the wonderfulness in communication.
By the term 'symbolic process', Carey meant a representation for community ideals in the material forms. The material forms or symbols can be artistic expressions like song, dance, plays, painting or journalism or scientific subjects such as anthropology or biology. The common belief among majority of people is reality is primary and symbolic representation is secondary. This means that there is an all encompassing reality which does not change, what changes is the peole's perception of reality which they represent through an artistic expression or scientific subject. For example, a painter who is pessimistic and sees everything which is wrong in the society is likely to produce 'darker' paintings because it is his perception of reality. The cultural apporach however counters this belief by contesting that the symbols are primary. The symbolic process creates reality or as Kenneth Burke says 'reality is the signs of words'. Carey argues that there is no single reality which is all encompassing, rather reality is brought into existence by multiple symbolic processes going on in the universe at any point of time. For example, a news item (symbolic process) may lead people to act in a certain way which will create new reality. This reality is different for different people and thus reality is not 'a given'.
Dance is a non-verbal communication process which is social and culturally significant. Most people have an intuitive understanding of dance which helps them in evaluating dance from various cultures. There are several genres of dance from classical ballet to popular dance forms, from ritual dance to forms of sport such as figure skating. Different forms of dance are prevalent in different parts of the world such as classical ballet in Europe and ritual dance in Asia. Each culture has its own unique element in dancing, for example, association of musical instruments such as drums with dancing in most of Africa. A common understanding of the important elements of dance across cultures is thus important to understand the communication process.
There are several attempts made by researchers to define dance in their cultural context. The Webster's Third International Dictionary defines dance as 'rythmic movemement having as its aim the creation of visual designs by a series of poses through space in time and executed by body parts with a certain temperament and purpose' (Kurath, 1960, pp. 234-235). According to Hanna, the concept of series of poses stands good in traditional dance categories such as classical ballet and ritual dance, however fail in modern dance forms such as Tharp in which the dancers' bodies just keep spiralling and there is no distinct series of poses (1987). which stand good in their own cultures but fail in their understanding of cross-cultural elements.
Keali'inohomoku (1972, p. 387) defines dance as an 'affective mode of expression which requires both time and space, employs motor behaviour in redundant patterns which are closely linked to the definitve features of musicality'. According to Hanna, this definition is too limited as dance can occur without expression of emotions. Moreover, redundancy is not a feature of many dance forms and they often have a unique beginning and climax. The association of musicality with dance is very limited in scope as music and dance are two separate activities and need not happen together. In fact, several dance forms such as figure gymnastics take place without music.
The present definitions stand good in their limited cultural context, but fail when applied to diverse cross-cultural dance forms. These definitions of dance are limited in their understanding of important elements of dance across cultures. They either incorporate unnecessary elements (such as transcending utility in Kurath's definition) or leave out important elements (such as culturally patterned sequence in Keali'inohomoku's definition. Hanna attempts to bridge this gap in cross-cultural understanding of dance by establishing four criteria which must be fulfilled for an activity to be termed as dance i) purposeful, ii) intentionally rhythmical, iii) culturally patterned sequences of iv a) non verbal body movements, b) extra ordinary motor activites, c) motion having inherent and aesthetic value (Hanna, 1987, p. 19).
To analyze dance from a cultural approach to communication, Carey's notion of communication, that is, 'reality is produced, maintained, repaired and transformed' has to be evaluated in the context of dance. While dance is influenced by a culture, it also creates a culture (producing reality) of its own. Like any other artists, dancers vie to be unique in their art by incorporating unique steps in their movements which are not necessarily influenced by their culture. A prime example will be Michael Jackson who influenced a new fashion and dance culture of his own throughout the world with his unique steps. Jackson's dance works have lasted in the memories of viewers in the forms of records beyond the actual dance situation. This has influenced thousands of youngsters to copy Jackson which has 'produced reality' by creating a form of dance and even fashion which previously did not exist.
Once the reality has been produced, the creators look to maintain the reality in the wake of new generations who might find it 'problematic' by creating rigid rules and regulations. This 'maintenance of reality' is visible in popular dance forms such as classical ballet. Brinson (1991) observes that the national dance culture in elitist Europe has often rigid formality and artificiality which forces the dancers to be within the realm of existing reality. The dance schools and theatres impose this rigidity on students of dance which can be viewed as an effort to maintain reality. It has been moderately successful in some cases. The traditional Indian dance forms such as Bharatnatyam and Kuchipudi are said to have retained their original form after even centuries of their origin despite many external modernizing pressures.
In most cases, however, the new generation finds the existing dance forms too 'problematic' and seek to incorporate newer changes (repairing and transforming the reality). A prime example can be Isadora Duncan who worked towards loosening the restrictions on classical ballet and formed a modern dance tradition known as Twyla Tharp. In most cases, however, the repaired reality is caused due to cultural (external) changes. In Duncan's case, the rise of theatre dance and vaudeville created an appropriate condition for her to introduce changes to the classical and more rigid form of ballet. This contradicts with Carey's notion that transformation in reality will happen due to symbolic process. In the case of Twyla Tharp and most other modern dance forms, the symbolic process has happened due to transformation in reality or cultural changes.
This can mean two things. One of them is that Communication, as many scholars claimed, a 'most mundane experience' after all. This means that most of the communication around us is a representation of the reality and not the other way round as Carey theorized. Only on rare activities with 'excessive masochism' can it influence the reality. This was the case with Jackson and Duncan as both were wonderful exponents of their art that they were able to influence a whole new reality due to their lasting effect on people's memories.
A more plausible explanation can be that communication acts as representation of reality and for reality at the same time depending upon the point of view. Borrowing from Bakhtin's concept of Intertextuality, an artist's work results from an influence of multiple inner voices and yet is completely different from any other artist. Taking this concept into the dance forms, a dancer plays two roles in communication process. He is not only influenced by existing cultural phenomenon which determines his purpose and patterns, he also influences the actual culture through his unique rhythmical patterns which are independent of cultural influence. So a dancer is not only influenced by reality but also creates reality at the same time. The magnitude of his role depends upon the ability of the artist and external conditions prevailing. This explains the case of Jackson and Duncan satisfactorily.
The purpose of this essay was to evaluate the effectiveness of Cultural approach to communication using dance as communication process. Dance can create new reality and maintain it. But the changes in reality (repair and transformation) often happen under the influence of external conditions. It was found that Carey's notion of symbolic processes creating reality is one-dimensional. It assumes that symbolic processes are the origin and reality is a manifestation of it. However, it was revealed that symbolic processes play a dual role of influencer and influenced at the same time. This opens the question of origin of symbols and reality. It can form the scope of future studies on cultural approach to communication.
This report concerns the evaluation and risk analysis of the total revenue for USA Super Cars, with the assumption of independent normal distributions of currencies. Two estimates are performed based on the estimation of mean and standard deviation of the currencies from the source and the estimation using the prevailing exchange rates. Using the first method, the mean of the total revenue is $2,191,461 with standard deviation $37,869, and the 5% Value at Risk is $2,129,171. The mean estimated from the second method is $2,529,084 with standard deviation $84,039, and the 5% Value at Risk is $2,390,851. Since the evaluation using the prevailing exchange rates is more reliable, the uncertainty of the risk is larger than expected.
Since the bank offers only $2,150,000 for the total revenue and the prevailing exchange rates suggest the company could earn more than this number, the offer is not acceptable if the currency risks are properly hedged. Four ways to hedge the currency risk include investing in currency-hedged mutual fund or exchange-traded fund, shorting the over-valued currency, buying the under-valued currency, and pursuing for higher interest rate. Of course, the decision of the company should incorporate the risk preference and expectation of future changes of exchange rates. In this case, the Sale Manger is risk-averse while the CEO is not. On the other side, the bank if buys the total revenue, then the bank is taking the uncertainties of currencies and the default risk. Actions could be taken after the interested parties taking comprehensive consideration of all sorts of risks. Limitation of the report mainly comes from the assumption of independence and normality, as well as the validity of the estimate of the mean and standard deviation of the currencies.
USA Super Cars sells luxury cars and has signed a forward contract to deliver in 1st Jan 2016 to its global customers. Providing that the selling prices are fixed in local currencies at the prevailing exchange rate, a risk analysis is performed to instruct all the instructed parties to cope with the uncertainty. Risk evaluation is performed with the assumed normal distribution of the exchange rate, and the currencies are independent. The report includes the estimation of the revenue and risk analysis for the interested parties for both the estimated exchange rate in 1st Jan 2016 and the prevailing exchange rate. At last limitation and suggestions would be provided based on the data analysis.
Estimation of the revenue
Since the estimation of exchange rate of EUR/USD is not available, it is estimated by using the daily closing values from the last 24 months, 28 November 2013 to 27 November 2015 from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2015). The mean and standard deviation for Euro is calculated as 1.23213 and 0.11825 to US dollar, respectively. Filling in the estimation of France order, the table of total estimation is listed as in table 1.
Since all the currencies are assumed to follow independent normal distribution, the total revenue is actually the linear combination of a series of independent normal random variables. According to Weiss and Weiss (2012), the total revenue follows a normal distribution, with the mean being the sum of means and standard deviation being the square of sum of variances. Specifically, the estimated mean of the total revenue is $2,191,461 and standard deviation is $37,869. That is to say the average tendency of the total revenue is $2,191,461, and the variation to it is $37,869. More intuitively, the distribution of total revenue is plotted in figure 1, as the frequency massed around the mean value. Given the estimated distribution of the total revenue, the probability of the total revenue exceeds or falls below certain threshold could be calculated. Following the cumulative probability density of normal distribution, the revenue that exceeds $2,280,000 has the probability of 0.97% and the revenue that is less than $2,160,000 has the probability of 20.31%.
Risk analysis of interested parties
If HSBC offers to pay $2,150,000 in return of the uncertain currencies, evaluation could be conducted according to the estimated distribution. The cumulative distribution of the total revenue at $2,150,000 is 13.68%, which means the probability of total revenue exceeding $2,150,000 is 13.68% and the probability of total revenue less than this amount is 86.32%. That is to say, there is large chance that the total revenue is worthy of more money than the tendered offer from HSBC. It is not a good offer for USA Super Cars, because the company is very likely to earn more. Furthermore, the offer from HSBC is even less than the mean value of the total revenue, $2,191,461, therefore it could be hardly considered as a good offer.
If the Sales Manager is willing to accept the offer, which means he possesses pessimistic expectation about the future value of the total revenue and the loss hurts him more than the utility from equivalent gain. This fits the definition of risk-averse (Investopedia, 2015) exactly, which refers to the behaviour that the investor prefers to the return with smaller risk and gives up the higher possible return. Since the CEO refuses to accept the offer, that is to say the CEO is expecting a higher return with higher risk and the Sales Manager is more risk-averse. Apart from the uncertainties of the exchange rate, if the offer is accepted by the company the bank is also taking the counterparty risk (Merk Funds, 2014). The forward contract features the risk when the future price moves in favour of the counterparty then the company would have incentive to default, while when the future prices moves against the counterparty then the buyers would default. The latter situation is the counterparty risk, and if the bank’s offer is accepted while the counterparty defaults, this increases the uncertainty of the bank.
Analysis with prevailing exchange rate
If the bank is to pay the money next week, it would better to perform the risk analysis with the prevailing exchange rates. Exporting all the data from Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2015), the standard deviation of the exchange rates are replaced with the estimation using the last 24 month daily data and the mean is replaced with the last closing price in 27 November 2015, as in table 2. The estimated mean of the total revenue is $2,529,084 and standard deviation $84,039, compared to the results $2,191,461 and $37,869 respectively. So if the bank offers to pay $2,150,000, it is not favourable at all since the mean increases to a large number valued by the prevailing exchange rate. Statistically speaking, the probability that the total return would be less than $2,150,000 is 0.00032%, which is extremely unlikely to happen. On the other side, if the bank pays next week, USA Super Cars would be able to secure the revenue in a short time and to reduce the risk. So the situation differs since the risk of the company reduces and the valuation of the total returns changes. When USA Super Cars expects that US dollars depreciate hugely and expects the total return is less than $2,150,000, or the company is extremely risk-averse, the company would prefer the payment to be made next week. Because the payment to be made next week would reduce the uncertainty of the company while the prevailing evaluation of the total revenue suggests the offered price from HSBC is not favourable. When HSBC holds the anticipation that the total revenue in New Year’s Day exceeds the payment plus time value, the bank would prefer the payment to be made next week.
Assuming the bank converts all the currencies into US dollars at the prevailing exchange rates, the probability that the bank would incur a loss is 0.00032% as discussed above. As illustrated in figure 2, the distribution of total revenue could be compared in which one is estimated by the provided values while another one uses the prevailing exchange rate. The 5% Value at Risk is $2,390,851 with the estimated normal distribution. Ignoring the time value of the money in this case, the expected profit for the bank is the difference between the mean of revenue and the offer price. Therefore the expected profit is $379,084. The comparison could be made to the situation using the provided values of mean and standard deviation of the currencies, instead of the prevailing exchange rates. The 5% Value at Risk for the valuation of total revenue not using prevailing exchange rates is $2,129,171 and expected profit for the bank in this case is $41,461. Since the provided estimate of mean and deviation of the currencies differs greatly from the estimate using prevailing exchange rates, this is the reason of shift of the Value at Risk and expected profit after using prevailing exchange rates.
As suggested by Borzykowski (2014), there are four ways to hedge to currency risks, including investing in currency-hedged mutual fund or exchange-traded fund, shorting the over-valued currency, buying the under-valued currency, and pursuing for higher interest rate. If the bank chooses not to convert all the currencies or just converts some currencies, those four ways to hedge the currency risks could be adopted.
The risk report relies greatly on the assumption of independent normal distributions of currencies and the validity of the estimations. First of all, the independent normal distributions of currencies are not plausible as pointed out in the seminal work of McFarland, Pettit and Sung (1982). The distribution of financial data, especially the foreign exchange rates, features leptokurtosis, which refers to heavy tails and sharp peaks different from normal distribution (Hodrick, 2014). The independent assumption also limits the analysis as pointed out by Bradshaw and Huang (1991) that global currencies are dependent subjecting to structural economic dependences. At last, the estimate of mean and standard deviation of the currencies either provided from the source or using the daily data of last 24 months. The validity of the estimate from the source is hard to evaluate without knowledge of the involved methods, while the estimation using prevailing exchange rates relies on the normal distribution.
As the discussed in the analysis above, the total revenues has the mean value of $2,191,461 and standard deviation $37,869 using the estimate of mean and standard deviation for the currencies provided in the source. If the total revenue is evaluated by the prevailing exchange rates, by replacing the mean with the last daily closing price and the standard deviation with the estimation from daily data of last 24 months, the mean value is $2,529,084 and standard deviation $84,039. Since the standard deviation reflects the risk of the currencies, the company faces higher uncertainty of the currency revenue. Since the bank offers to pay $2,150,000 for the total revenue, the company should be considerate enough to the future trend of foreign currencies and their risk preference. Providing the total revenue is valued using the prevailing exchange rates, the company should not accept the offer from HSBC. Actually, the company could take measures to hedge the risk like invest in currency-hedged mutual fund in order to secure higher revenue.
Gergen suggested that character, vision, and political capacity are three essential traits of anyone aspiring to a leadership position.
The seven virtues from Barker and Coy's (2003) study are humility; courage; integrity; humour; passion; compassion; and wisdom.
Kirkpatrick and Locke (1991) pointed out that leadership trait consists of six elements: drive; desire to lead; honesty and integrity; self-confidence; cognitive ability; and knowledge of the business.
The indications of transformational leadership style from leaders' self-ratings are perceiving, extraversion and intuition while subordinates indicated that the most transformational leaders were sensing leaders
Bass (1985), Tichy and Devanna (1990) and Ross and Offerman (1997) pointed out that creativity, novelty, innovativeness, proneness to risk, courageous, believing in people, value-driven, life-long learners, pragmatism, nurturance, feminine attributes and self-confidence are the personality characteristics regarded of transformational leaders.
Most of these qualities can be connected with intuition, feeling and perceiving preferences according to theory of the MBTI (Myers Briggs Type Indicator).
Church and Waclawski (1998) added also that extrovert, intuitive, thinking and perceiving are more transformational than their counterparts. This was supported by Roush's (1992) study of subordinates' appraisals that feeling, perceiving, intuition, and extroversion preferences received the most positive transformational ratings. Intuitive and perceiving preferences were more likely to indicate a transformational leadership style (Van Eron and Burke, 1992). While Roush and Atwater (1992) found sensing and feeling preferences were strongly associated with transformational leadership according to subordinates' ratings.
Another group of scholars examined the relationship between leaders' personality with the Five Factors Model. Judge et al. (2002), and Bono and Judge (2004) revealed that extroversion has strongest correlation with transformational leadership. The study by Judge and Bono (2000) asserted that extroversion and agreeableness were correlated with transformational leadership. In addition, Ployhart et al. (2001) showed that openness and extroversion were predictive of maximum transformational leadership performance.
In this study, the personal characteristics of project managers were measured following the personal competencies framework in the Project Manager Competency Development (PMCD) Framework developed by the PMI (2002). This standard identifies the personal characteristics of effective project managers regardless of the nature, type, size, or complexity of projects they may be engaged in managing. This model was adopted because PMI materials are being used in many countries
The following discussions on personal competencies are extracted from PMI (2002).
As stated by Boyatzis (1982), competence means different things to different people. However, it is generally accepted as encompassing knowledge, skills, attitudes and behaviours that are causally related to superior job performance. This understanding of competence has been described as attribute-based inference of competence (Heywood, Gonczi et al., 1992). Alternatively, performance-based approach to competence can be inferred from demonstrated performance at pre-defined acceptable standards in the workplace (Gonczi, Hager et al., 1993).
The PMI's definition of 'competency' adopted from Parry's (1998) work is 'a cluster of related knowledge, attitudes, skills, and other personal characteristics that affects a major part of one's job, correlates with performance on the job, can be measured against well-accepted standards, can be improved via training and development and can be broken down into dimensions of competencies'. The major components of competencies include: abilities, attitudes, behaviour, knowledge, personality and skills.
The PMI's definition of 'personal competency' adopted from Finn (1993) and Crawford (1997) is 'the core personality characteristics underlying a person's capability to do a project. These are behaviour, motives, traits, attitudes, and self concepts that enable a person to successfully manage a project'.
The personal competencies from PMI presented here are those considered to best represent the personal characteristics required of a competent project manager in any type of project. They were derived from the Competency Dictionary (Spencer Model) developed by Lyle and Signe Spencer (1993) and adapted to fit the technical need of the PMCD framework. The six competence units are:
Achievement and action: This competency consists of achievement orientation; concern for order in quality and accuracy; initiative and information seeking.
Helping and human service: This competency implies that the manager has customer service orientation and interpersonal understanding.
Impact and influence: This competency comprises impact and influence capability; organisation awareness and relationship building.
Managerial competency: This competency includes teamwork and cooperative; capability in developing others; team leadership and directiveness, assertiveness and positional power using.
Cognitive: This competency implies that the manager has both analytical thinking capability and conceptual thinking ability.
Personal effectiveness: This competency covers self-control; self-confidence; flexibility and organisational commitment.
who encourages subordinates to put in extra effort and to go beyond what they (subordinates) expected before. The subordinates of transformational leaders feel trust, admire, loyal and respect towards leaders and are motivated to perform extra-role behaviours (Bass, 1985; Katz and Kahn, 1978; Bass and Avolio, 1993; Conger et al., 2000). Howell and Frost (1989), Clover (1990), Deluga (1992), Kirkpatrick and Locke (1996), Barling et al. (1996) asserted that transformational leadership styles affect higher task performance. While Hater and Bass (1998), Howell and Frost (1989) and Conger et al. (2000) claimed that transformational leadership behaviours are associated with subordinates' satisfaction.
Transformational leaders achieve the greatest performance from subordinates since they are able to inspire their subordinates to raise their capabilities towards success and develop subordinates' innovative problem- solving skills (Bass, 1985; Yammarino and Bass, 1990). Jung et al. (2003) found significant relationships between this style and innovative-supporting organisational climate. Moreover, Shin and Zhou (2003) also reported positive relationship with followers' level of creativity.
This paper set out to examine the influence of project managers' personal competencies and leadership behaviours on subordinates' work performance and leadership outcomes using data from 52 construction projects in Thailand. The outcomes regarding project managers' personal competencies show that Thai project managers have cognitive competency higher than other competencies tested in this study. Correlation analysis result clarified that project managers with high helping and human service competency and/or personal effectiveness
competency are likely to generate high work quality, work quantity and problem solving creativity from their subordinates whereas those with high cognitive competency supported subordinates to produce high work quantity and problem solving creativity while those with high achievement and action competency are likely to derive better work quality from the subordinates.
The association between PMCD personal competencies (achievement and action, helping and human service, impact and influence, managerial, cognitive and personal effectiveness) developed by PMI (2002) and MLQ leadership behaviours developed by Bass and Avolio's (2004) reveals that the entire personal competencies have significant positive relationship with every factor in the transformational style but they have significant positive relationship with only contingent reward factor in transactional style whereas they all have negative relationship with laissez-faire style. It implies that project managers who apply transformational leadership behaviours with their subordinates are assumed to have the essential personal characteristics required of a competent project manager defined by PMI as well.
The results further indicate that all personal competencies units have significant positive relationship with leadership outcomes (effectiveness, satisfaction and extra effort). A possible explanation for this is a project manager with high PMCD personal competencies is likely to produce effectiveness from his/her leadership, by achieving organisational objectives, goals and assisting his/her subordinates to success in their work life, more than one with less. In addition, the stronger the PMCD personal competencies a project manager has the more his/her ability to make the subordinates satisfied and to motivate them to put extra effort into their work. Among all the PMCD personal competencies, personal effectiveness competency has the highest relationship with all leadership outcome aspects. It implies that a project manager with high self-control, self-confidence, flexibility and organisational commitment is likely to produce higher work effectiveness while at the same time generating subordinates' satisfaction and supporting them to put great effort into their work than those with high level in other competencies.
Another finding of this study is that the leadership style mostly adopted and proving to be most suitable for Thai people is the transformational leadership style. Results clearly indicate that transformational leadership style creates leadership outcomes (effectiveness, satisfaction and extra effort) from subordinate more than transactional and laissez-faire leadership style. This finding agrees with Katz and Kahn (1978), Bass(1985), Hater and Bass (1988), Howell and Frost (1989), Bass and Avolio (1993) and Conger et al. (2000). It implies that a project manager who adopts the transformational leadership style is supposed to produce effectiveness from his/her leadership, by achieving organisational targets, goals and support his/her subordinates to accomplish the needs in their job more than a project manager who adopts the transactional leadership style or the laissez-faire style. Transformational leadership style also yields higher satisfaction from subordinates and spur them to exert more effort to work than the transactional leadership style in construction projects in Thailand.
Regarding the influence of leadership behaviours on subordinates' work performance, a project manager who adopts the transformational leadership approach can support subordinates to produce better work quality and work quantity. This agrees with Howell and Frost (1989), Clover (1990), Deluga (1992), Kirkpatrick and Locke (1996), Barling et al. (1996) and Sosik et al. (1997). In addition, subordinates tend to have high creativity in problem solving when working with transformational leaders. This finding supports both the study by Jung et al. (2003), and Shin and Zhou (2003).
This study focused mainly on the effect of project managers' personal competencies and their leadership style on subordinates' work performance and leadership outcomes. Another issue of concern here is the relationship between project managers' personal competencies and their leadership behaviours. It was intended to identify the most appropriate leadership style and the required personality, attribute and skills of the proficient project managers in the construction industry.
In summary, a project manager with high PMCD personal competencies tend to produce leadership outcomes (effectiveness, satisfaction, extra effort) more than one who has less while a project manager with high personal effectiveness competency is likely to produce higher levels in all leadership outcomes than those with high level in other competencies.
Transformational leadership style is the major leadership style in Thai construction projects. Results also clarified that this leadership style is likely to generate higher leadership outcomes than the transactional style and the laissez-fairestyle. Transformational leadership style tends to produce high work quality, work quantity, and problem solving creativity from subordinates. Besides, leaders who apply transformational behaviours are likely to have the vital project manager personal characteristics as defined by the PMI also.
PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
The study adds some additional knowledge in the appropriate leadership style and effective personal competencies of construction project manager for the eastern context in the 21st century. The results clarified that project managers who apply transformational leadership style as well as those with high PMCD personal competencies are likely to generate greater leadership outcomes and work performance from their subordinates in construction projects. It implies that, project managers can adjust their leadership behaviours in practical ways and develop their own personal competencies to fit with subordinates' preferences and support them to produce high work performance as well as enhance leadership outcomes. In addition, the human resource management function in the construction companies can utilise these results for their leadership development effort.
Emerging from this study is the need for further studies in several directions. First, this study used Bass and Avolio's (2004) MLQ to measure leadership behaviours of project managers whereas personal competencies were measured following PMCD developed by the PMI (2002). It would be interesting to use other instruments to measure leader behaviours and personal competencies or to employ several instruments at the same time and compare the results. Second, this paper examined the current leadership behaviour and its effects on people working in the Thai construction industry. It would inform the research community to gather data from other industries which have different nature of work in order to determine if there is a fit between leadership style and nature of work or personality and nature of work. Third, there are other possible explanations for the result in this study. It is possible that the leadership styles adopted at the professional to professional level is different from those adopted at the professional to technician or worker level. That is, managers may adopt transformational leadership when dealing with other professionals but may choose to adopt transactional leadership when leading technicians or site workers. A study clarifying this would seem to be appropriate.
There are three main types of scientific reasoning: Deduction, Original Induction, and inference to the best explanation (“superinduction”). In this paper, I will argue that the rational response to the problem of induction is pragmatic rationality. We should not reject the conclusion draw from Induction methods immediately, because sometimes the best explanation and only method in scientific reasoning to explain the world is superinduction. Firstly, I will discuss what the problem of induction is, in different perspective. Secondly, I will support my claim by examples and theories. And then I will give explanations to contradict any counter arguments, and reach to a final conclusion.
What is Induction?
To understand what the problem of induction is, we first need to understand what Induction is. Original Induction means that we draw the conclusion from things we have experienced or examples we have seen. In other words, from given premises, we reach to a conclusion of object. This method certainly has its veracity. People always use their past experience as a standard to judge similar situations. Use an example from the notes, every blood test prove one is type O, then we can inducted that the next blood result will also be Type O. And this assumption is absolutely legitimate.
WHAT IS THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION
Every premise in Induction is a single aspect, and the conclusion is ampliated to a much bigger range including all the given premises and non-given premises. This means that sometimes not all premises have been discovered and included into consideration, there might be a possibility that we have missing some critical premises which will make the conclusion false.
The problem of induction have been a myth for a long time, many scientists proposed ways to solve it, but all failed. Perhaps there really is no way to solve the problem. However, we could use inference to the best explanation to get the most suitable explanation for the current time. As science has been, is and will always be improving, new explanations will be proposed and old theories will be waived. For any StudentPapers.htmlnew hypothesis, it should at least be examined by Giere’s six steps program first to see if it is valid.